Running Away From Obama

Normally, by this time in the Presidential Election cycle, several opposing candidates will have declared their intention to run against a first term President seeking re-election.  The odd thing about this time around isn’t who has declared, but who has dropped out.

Mike Huckabee won’t run, leaving social conservatives without a clear choice.  Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana also won’t throw his hat in the ring, leaving fiscal conservatives without a clear choice.  Of those possible contenders, only Sarah Palin has big enough name recognition to mount a serious national challenge.  Unfortunately, Sarah’s negative poll numbers means she would get clobbered by Obama.

Newt Gingrich’s campaign is imploding before our very eyes, as he took a long cruise with his wife without apparently telling his staffers.  Several quit in protest.  Newt is now trying to salvage a campaign in flames before we even make it to the 4th of July.  So who’s left for the GOP to run against a popular, charismatic President who fundraises like a bandit?

Businessman Herman Cain has been enjoying good polling and contacts with the base.  His rags-to-riches story is one that compares favorably to Obama.  He’s reliably conservative, both socially and fiscally.  He also has some negatives.  He’s never held elective office. He ran for the Senate in 2004, but lost.  He remains a long shot.

Mitt Romney once again throws his hat into the ring.  A successful businessman and Governor of a blue state (Massachusetts), Romney knows how to balance a budget and work with Democrats.  Unfortunately, that’s precisely the candidate today’s “Take No Prisoners” GOP absolutely hates.  He’s also a Mormon, which many social conservatives consider heretical.  Romney also wants the gig really, REALLY badly.  That kind of ambition smells like desperation.  The base want reassurances that he won’t flip-flop in the face of mounting pressure.  That’s not something he can promise.  As it has been pointed out before, “Obamacare” bears a striking resemblance to the health care reforms Romney pioneered during his tenure as Governor of Massachusetts.  Awkward…

Former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota looks to be the current frontrunner for the nomination.  Who?  Exactly.  The problem with Pawlenty is no one is really sure what he stands for.  As a Northerner, he faces extra scrutiny from the GOP’s power base in the South and Sun Belt.  Now being a Northerner without a clear platform doesn’t disqualify a candidate (see:  Obama, Barack).  However, if you don’t have charisma or the ability to fire up the base, you’re done for (see:  Dukakis, Michael).

So who will emerge as the candidate that has the power to take down the man who killed Osama bin Laden?  We won’t really know until election season kicks up in earnest after the first of the year.  We may not even know until the Summer of 2012 when the GOP finally decides during the convention.  Whoever they choose, they will have their hands full against a sitting President with a truckload of campaign money.